Will the Scottish team finally end the New Zealand curse?
Autumn Nations Series: Scotland v New Zealand
Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital Date: Saturday, 8 November Time: 3:10 PM GMT
Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.
Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.
A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."
Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.
A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, you know the rest.
Recent History
Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent.
In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.
Squad Updates
In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.
Through their brilliance, their power, game management, they get the job done.
As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.
Missing Players
Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.
The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.
During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.
Squad Depth
Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.
Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.
Strategic Decisions
Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.
The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.
Past Encounters
Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.
That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, set-piece issues.
Statistical Analysis
Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and 60 in the second half.
They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.
Required Performance
Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.
The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - maintaining intensity.
Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks.
Conclusion
Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.
But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. Vocal support. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.
Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.